Business environment

Trends and forecasts

In 2011, the expected demand for oil products in Europe should remain unchanged relative to the previous year.

Following the expected economic growth (estimated at 4.2% globally, in particular at 2.2% for developed countries and at 6.4% for developing countries1), it is forecast that demand for oil will grow. The overall demand for crude oil in 2011 is estimated at 88.8 million barrels a day, which represents a 1.5% increase on year 2010.

Although most of the demand will be accounted for by OECD countries (45.7 mb/d), the oil consumption in this group of countries will be lower by 0.5% than in 2010. However, an increase in consumption by almost 4% will take place in developing countries from outside the OECD. This trend will be upheld on the oil market in the coming years and by 2012 most of the oil consumption will be generated in these countries.

Forecast fuel consumption2

On the global market, a further increase in demand for refinery products is forecast – relative to 2010, the growth should reach 1.7% in 2011 and 7% by 2015. The most robust consumption growth is expected on the diesel oil market (3% in 2011, 14% in 2015). A healthy growth will also mark aviation fuel and LPG consumption whereas the demand for gasoline shall stabilise at the current level until 2015.

1 World Economic Outlook, IMF, October 2010

Based on Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook 2010–2015, JBC, October 2010

Forecast global consumption of fuels (thousand b/d) Source: prepared in-house based on JBC data, October 2010
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On the European market, demand for oil products in 2011 should remain on the unchanged level relative to 2010 and should be slightly lower in 2015 (a decrease of less than 1%). The demand will be buoyed up on both the diesel oil market (an increase of 4% by 2015) and the JET aviation fuel market (10% up by 2015) whereas the demand for engine gasoline is predicted to fall.